ABP News-CVoter predicts Modi return in 2019

The ABP News-CVoter ‘Desh ka Mood’ survey predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will return for a second term in 2019. The vote share of NDA and UPA will be 38 percent and 25 percent respectively. This makes NDA to get 276, UPA 112 and others 155. The NDA and UPA will have a tough fight in Haryana, where NDA gest 6, UPA 3 and 1 by others. It says UPA gest 12 of 13 seats in Punjab, leaving 1 for NDA .The survey predicted that NDA will sweep the North-East getting 18 of 25 seats, leaving 6 for UPA and 1 for otehrs.

The BJP might win maximum seats in Odisha with the ruling Biju Janata Dal ranking second. It is likely to get 13 of 21 seats, leaving 6 for BJP and 2 for Congress. BJP clean sweep projects in Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

If the BJP and Shiv Sena split, and the NCP and Congress joins in Maharashtra, it spells advantage UPA. The UPA is expected to poll 30 of 48 seats, should the scenario play out. If Congress forms alliance with NCP, UPA gets 30, leaving 16 for BJP and 2 for Shiva Sena. If BJP stays with Shiv Sena and the NCP stays with the Congress, then the NDA is expected win to big, polling about 36 seats, leaving 12 for UPA. If all parties contest individually, NDA is expected to get the maximum of 22 seats, leaving 11 for Congress, 8 for NCP and 7 for Shiva Sena.

Despite there being an anti-incumbency wave against Vasundhara Raje, the NDA is expected to win 18 of the 25 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, leaving 6 for UPA. If the Lok Sabha polls were to be held today in Chhattisgarh, then the NDA is expected to win 9 of the 11 seats, leaving 2 for UPA. If polls are held in Madhya Pradesh today, then the survey expects the NDA to win a whopping 23 seats, with the UPA polling a mere 6 seats.

In Bihar, there are two possibilities. If the Mahagathbandhan is the way forward, the UPA, with the RSLP and LJP in its alliance partners, is expected to win 18 seats, with the NDA edging ahead with 22 seats. If the NDA remains intact, then the alliance is expected to get 31 seats, with the UPA getting a dismal 9 seats. In West Bengal, TMC seat-share will fall down to a mere 25, leaving 16 for NDA and 1 for Congres.

It predicts that the Congress would be able to make big gains in Uttar Pradesh,  if it joins hands with the SP-BSP alliance. The Mahagathbandhan will win no less than 56 of 80 seats in the state, leaving 24 for BJP. However, if the parties don’t go the Mahagathbandhan way, the NDA could clinch as many as 70 seats, leaving 2 for UPA and 8 for otehrs. The third scenario would emerge if the Congress decides to not enter into an alliance with the SP-BSP, NDA gets 36 and SP-BSP gets 42, leaving UPA 2 seats.

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