The 29 SC reserved constituencies would be a game changer in Andhra Pradesh for the 2019 Assembly elections. Peoples Pulse study shows that YSR Congress is having an edge in 12 constituencies, the ruling TDP in nine and the remaining eight would witness tight contests.
Though, in two of these constituencies, the Congress would decide the outcome and Jana Sena would determine which way the scale would tilt in the remaining six, it said that these two parties can win no seat on their own. The BJP and the Left parties have no role to play.
The Peoples Pulse conducted a quantitative study from December 1st to December 15th in these constituencies. It must be mentioned that Dalit voting behaviour in general is different from that of reserved constituencies.
The MLAs, irrespective of whether they belong to the ruling party or the main Opposition party, are facing a great amount of ill-will from their constituents. If the same candidates are fielded again, they are almost certain to lose.
Two features need to be mentioned. The Congress has improved since its disastrous performance in 2014 where it got around two percent of the vote. It’s now in the range of around five percent.
There is a lot of heat and dust about the Jana Sena. But on the ground level there is not much talk about Jana Sena or their leader Pawan Kalyan. Nobody knows what the party stands for. Worse is there is no clarity among the people what Pawan Kalyan stands for or what change or development he aspires to bring.
Meanwhile, Andhra Pradesh does not have a single Dalit leader who has an appeal across the Dalit community, let alone these constituencies. Further both the parties, the TDP and the YSR Congress, lack a Dalit face.