The India Today-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation poll predicts that the NDA would be nowhere close to the magic figure of 271, that a political party or alliance needs to form the government, if elections were held today.
The BJP-led NDA would lose its overwhelming majority in Parliament if Lok Sabha elections were to be held today, an extensive survey conducted across the country has found. The survey predicts a hung Parliament if elections were held today.
A hung Parliament would mean that the NDA would need to scramble to get support from non-UPA parties. This could lead to demands that somebody other than Narendra Modi be prime minister. It predicts that the NDA would win 237 seats, a massive drop of 99 seats compared to the coalition’s 2014 tally.
The staggering nature of NDA’s loss can be understood from the fact that the BJP crossed the figure of 272 on its own in 2014. It predicts massive wins for the Congress-led UPA, which would win 166 seats while parties that are not part of either the NDA or the UPA would win 140 seats. For the UPA, this is an increase of 106 seats compared to its 2014 tally.
The only solace for the is that its vote share would be higher than the UPA’s. As it emerges as single largest party, the President is bound to invite first BJP to form the government. BJP has to rope parties like TRS, YSRCP, AIADMK and BJD to form the next government.
But even that silver lining is not without a set of worry — the Mood of the Nation poll forecasts a drop in vote share for the BJP-led NDA. The UPA would see a rise in its vote share. According to the Mood of the Nation poll, the NDA would get 35 per cent of votes while the UPA would get 33 per cent.