Skymet, India’s leading weather forecasting and agri risk monitoring company, had released its forecast for Southwest Monsoon 2019 predicting below normal rains to the tune of 93% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of long period average (LPA). As a sequel to pan-India forecast, Skymet has now come up with quantitative distribution of Monsoon rainfall across the four regions of the country on May 14, 2019. Region-wise forecast comes with an error margin of +/- 8%.
Monsoon 2019 seems to make a timely onset. However, weather models are indicating towards a weak onset over the Indian subcontinent, resulting in a sluggish start to Monsoon 2019. Arrival of Monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands will be on May 22, with an error margin of +/- 2 days. Southwest Monsoon 2019 is likely to make onset over Kerala on June 4, with an error margin of +/- 2 days. Simultaneously, covering some parts of Northeast India as well. This will be preceded by intense pre-Monsoon rains over Kerala.
According to Mr. Jatin Singh, Managing Director, “All the four regions are going to witness lesser than normal rainfall, this season. East and Northeast India and central parts will be poorer than Northwest India and South Peninsula. Onset of Monsoon will be around June 4. It seems that initial advancement of Monsoon over Peninsular India is going to be slow.” With regard to south peninsula, it says the region remains at small risk this season, with the expected rains at 95% of LPA. The regional records for 716 mm of rains that accounts for 19% of the total Monsoon. North Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema may see poor rainfall. Kerala and Coastal Karnataka are likely to perform better.